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What's your thoughts? What will be the state of cars in 10 years?

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Clearwater, FL, USA
#1
My personal opinion - they'll be outlawed. Self driving cars will be mandated. Old cars will be grandfathered in but the lack of gas sales will make it too expensive for the poor who can't afford fancy new cars.

Do I hate my prediction? Yes. Do I think it's very possible? Yes.

15 years ago we sold our Ford Excursion....crazy to think of how different the laws are since that car was brand new.
 


Ford ST

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#2
My thought is you're very wrong and you need to quit reading stuff that makes you believe this. I've read some of the Tesla/EV friendly websites man that is some propaganda if I've ever seen it.

I believe in 10 years there will still be regular cars available no doubt about it especially class 3 and above trucks.
I believe we will see hybrid systems becoming almost standard. Electric vehicles will be a lot more common.
I don't know where you live maybe you live in the big city I live out in the country were many people don't even have access to home internet. Self-driving cars mandated no not in this country hell no.
So that's my prediction you are very wrong.
50 years from now maybe 10 years no.

If they're going to start banning even gasoline vehicles they better start working on the infrastructure to charge them, because I have yet to see a single new gas station put one charging port in. I live in North Carolina unfortunately one of the most moved into States in the entire country I don't see it happening not at all.

A little bit off topic but self-driving cars are probably going to be electric. We have ice storms here that have knocked out power for almost a week how's that going to work?




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kivnul

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Deer Park, WA
#3
I can see highly populated cities banning ICE cars in order to curb pollution (already happening around the world) and self driving/pool cars (Uber et. al) becoming more the norm (likely electric) in those same cities. It is way too easy for people to forget the "flyover" states when it comes to stuff like this. I live in a coastal state (but 6 hours away from the ocean) and long term power outages happen a couple times a year. Heavy snowfall and poor visablity will not work well with self driving systems. Cell coverage can get very spotty. My next car will probably be electric (in your 10 years or so), but I will always have an ICE powered car/beater truck as a backup.
 


HBEcoBeaST

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Huntington Beach
#4
10 years? That's pretty short term. Yes, more people will adopt EVs as prices come down since running costs are low. For many, buying a car is simply an economic decision vs buying something 'desirable' to an enthusiast.

I think there will be a lot more hybrid vehicles with multiple, smaller electric motors. This eliminates the need for huge batteries or large, powerful motors. The electric motors make up for low end power so the engine can be optimized for top end power. Computers handle the power transition and good software will make it seamless. Look at Lamborghini's new hybrid with a 30something HP electric motor. People laugh, but it works.

The regulation will be regarding autonomous software before bans on ICE motors. Liability issues, insurance structuring and unmanned vehicle collisions will all have to be addressed.

The EU is already failing (failed?) economically and banning ice cars will just be another economic black hole.

As for car ownership and ride sharing autonomous vehicles? That'll be more of an economic discussion. Millennials really drank the juice when it came to liberal ideals via social media and as a result ended up making poor education, career and financial decisions. I see the next generation as more economically intelligent and believe this 'recession' is ending soon.

Into the future. The biggest game changers will be safer nuclear power and fusion. Once 'clean' power is readily available, and cheap, transportation and technology will be exponentially better. Then we'll be more focused on space mining, space ships, and cars will be toys

-end rant

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Dpro

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#6
He probably drives for Lyft or was reading John Zimmer’s ( president of Lyft) Utopian BS he likes to spout off about from time to time. He has this view with the end all you will not need cars because you will all be using Lyft. lol right put down the crack pipe John and stop smoking those self lighting spliffs.
Oh and there will magically be less cars on the road due too non ownership. lol Nevermind the millions of cars he has on the road to drive you and your friends around.

Pure crazy futurist dream comedy.
 


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Location
Arlington
#8
Well i remember when I was told that the world would end as I knew it by the year 2000 if we didn't get rid of all the cars. Its now way past 2000 and I still drive a gas powered car. True it doesn't fly or hover (was also promised flying cars back then) and I suspect in another 50 years there will still be gas powered cars. If you look at cars from years ago, a 1954 VW got 26mpg and today a 2018 gets 29mpg, thats 66 years ago. So in the long term cars themselves don't really change other than added tech.
Electric cars will be banned once they figure out that the batteries are more harmful to the planet than oil products will ever be.
I personally can't wait till self driving cars are here. I just want to spend the weekend standing in front of them and stopping all traffic for the day. A new meaning to road rage.
 


jeffreylyon

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#9
As fleet MPG standards increase hybrids will become commonplace. Non-hybrid and n/a engines will becomes rare as will larger displacement engines. EVs will have much longer range but will still suck for road trips. New diesel-powered engines will be almost gone, even in Europe.
 


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US
#10
A little bit off topic but self-driving cars are probably going to be electric. We have ice storms here that have knocked out power for almost a week how's that going to work?
At the point that we have near universal electric/hybrids we should at that point have a very different power grid that is decentralized and generated more local between large solar/wind farms, and residential systems along with energy storage.

Really, being so dependent on so few sources of electricity makes less sense, that if we started with a more flexible system we'd be discussing why having fewer sources is less secure for a multitude of reasons.
 


HBEcoBeaST

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#11
I laugh at all these governments subsidizing billions into EVs, 'clean energy' and banning ICEs when even if we stopped 100% of carbon pollution today, 'climate change' would not stop. We need to CLEAN the carbon and pollution from the environment to 'combat climate change'. But the media focus is on protestors and pouting teenage girls instead of the people fixing things. If I see one more 'raising awareness' ad about climate change or pollution I'm going to puke.

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Location
Manassas, VA, USA
#12
Full-electric vehicles for the majority are a long way off since most are parked on streets or housing complex lots that do not have charging stations. Battery power decreases about 3% annually especially if quick-charged. Hybrid sales will increase as will more efficient, small displacement ICE's. Fully autonomous vehicles for the masses are a utopian fantasy. I'm pushing 70 and although things are changing I'll always want to drive my car, shift my gears and hear the exhaust growl!
 


jeff

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#13
My thought is you're very wrong and you need to quit reading stuff that makes you believe this. I've read some of the Tesla/EV friendly websites man that is some propaganda if I've ever seen it.

I believe in 10 years there will still be regular cars available no doubt about it especially class 3 and above trucks.
I believe we will see hybrid systems becoming almost standard. Electric vehicles will be a lot more common.
I don't know where you live maybe you live in the big city I live out in the country were many people don't even have access to home internet. Self-driving cars mandated no not in this country hell no.
So that's my prediction you are very wrong.
50 years from now maybe 10 years no.

If they're going to start banning even gasoline vehicles they better start working on the infrastructure to charge them, because I have yet to see a single new gas station put one charging port in. I live in North Carolina unfortunately one of the most moved into States in the entire country I don't see it happening not at all.

A little bit off topic but self-driving cars are probably going to be electric. We have ice storms here that have knocked out power for almost a week how's that going to work?




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This is about exactly how I'd respond so I'll be short. I think that the Utopian vision is propaganda, part of the "Green New Deal". I'd love a cleaner world, and I'm not being political when I say this, but it's horseshit. Al Gore ran his presidential campaign back in the day largely on the platform of saving the earth. When he lost he made a movie about it and his thesis in one sentence was "Climate change is not a political issue - it's a moral/ethical issue." I have feelings on that but I'll leave it alone...my point being, since then in the last 2 decades many have pushed for said Utopian future.

In this case, when it comes to driving, we're talking about (1) autonomous transportation and (2) electric transportation.

I love tech and appreciate much of the legislation happening to save the planet...and I'm not sure Skynet is too close to being a reality...but common sense unravels the dream here...as was said above when ice storms/power outages occur the whole thing breaks down. Even if the power doesn't go out a camera can't see through rain ice sleet and mud. If a camera can't see the whole thing breaks down. Dreamers talk of not owning a car because it kills the environment, meanwhile they click away on Amazon and let someone else kill the ozone layer bringing them green tea Kit Kat bars. And Musk said himself that the batteries they're making for his cars are manufactured from super-rare materials. More rare than gasoline.

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...

Maybe 50 years but I think the earth will be vaporized by then by some other means.
 


jeffreylyon

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#16
I'm sure that every shift began with skepticism: the introduction of cars, airplanes, incandescent lights, indoor plumbing, the Internet, etc. started with many people rolling their eyes at early adopters and startup problems.

5 years ago an EV wouldn't have made any sense for me. Now I drive one 70 miles every day powered by 100% renewable energy (wind, to be specific). Last year 2% of the automobile market was EV. In 2025 it's projected to be 8%. That is exponential growth. Exponential growth means exponential opportunities for companies building charging networks and recycling and down-cycling batteries. That feeds back into the growth curve. EVs have momentum and are here to stay until there's a better way for a person to get from point A to B without taking carbon out of the ground a pumping it into the atmosphere.

Besides all that, the vitriol against EVs is weird. They have their problems, some due to immaturity and some inherent, as did and do ICE cars, but I don't understand the knee jerks, ad hominem attacks, or Tesla-keying.
 


Ford ST

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#17
I was watching the news this evening while eating dinner and there was a story about people dying mining the minerals necessary for electrical batteries.
This is the problem people walk around with a superiority complex who drive electric vehicles acting like they're saving the polar bears who are drinking a Coca-Cola in a commercial, when some poor small child is basically acting as a slave to mine the garbage to make the battery.

Not against electric vehicles by the way I'm just saying let's acknowledge that there is some environmental harm from them as well.

I've read some of the electrical vehicle websites and some of these guys are just nuts they have a severe superiority complex riding a high horse.

The people who park in front of electrical charging ports in their gas vehicles are also jackasses.


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Ford ST

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#18
The machine that Bill Gates helped fund that sucks the carbon out of the air and captures it now that is something cool. Have a nuclear power plant power the machine to capture carbon of the air turn that carbon into fuel burn it recapture it.
Now that sounds like a crazy radical idea.



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jeffreylyon

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#19
Not against electric vehicles by the way I'm just saying let's acknowledge that there is some environmental harm from them as well.
Sure there is. And there's 0 benefit to an EV if you charge it with coal-generated energy. I'll bet that a coal-powered EV's lifecycle is a lot worse total than that of an ICE car.

Lithium mines in China and cobalt mines in Africa are catastrophes. BUT - that is not inherent to mining lithium or cobalt, it's just the shitty way we're doing it now. Just like the [oil in the ground] -> [getting to work] supply chain has gotten immeasurably better over the last 80 years and so will the EV supply chain. And let's not forget that those same mines are enabling our laptops and cell phones as well; I'm not sure one can legitimately wag a finger at an EV owner with a pocket full of lithium themselves.

I'll get pissy when someone goes catless because they like the sound or "roll coal" because they think that it's funny but I fully understand that EVs are niche at best - I couldn't live my life the way that I want with just an EV. That said, brown energy is not future state, if for no other reason that, sooner or later, we're gonna run out. More likely green will become more dominant because of its increasing ease and affordability: I haven't pumped gas to go to work since I bought my EV and, hopefully, my roof will be charging its batteries (and running my house) next year for zip energy cost.
 


Ford ST

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#20
Sure there is. And there's 0 benefit to an EV if you charge it with coal-generated energy. I'll bet that a coal-powered EV's lifecycle is a lot worse total than that of an ICE car.

Lithium mines in China and cobalt mines in Africa are catastrophes. BUT - that is not inherent to mining lithium or cobalt, it's just the shitty way we're doing it now. Just like the [oil in the ground] -> [getting to work] supply chain has gotten immeasurably better over the last 80 years and so will the EV supply chain. And let's not forget that those same mines are enabling our laptops and cell phones as well; I'm not sure one can legitimately wag a finger at an EV owner with a pocket full of lithium themselves.

I'll get pissy when someone goes catless because they like the sound or "roll coal" because they think that it's funny but I fully understand that EVs are niche at best - I couldn't live my life the way that I want with just an EV. That said, brown energy is not future state, if for no other reason that, sooner or later, we're gonna run out. More likely green will become more dominant because of its increasing ease and affordability: I haven't pumped gas to go to work since I bought my EV and, hopefully, my roof will be charging its batteries (and running my house) next year for zip energy cost.
I fully understand what you are saying.
I see it from 2 points of view 1 the countries this stuff comes from are not good countries they don't care about people. At least America has some standards and people who work in the petroleum world get paid fairly well.
Number 2 yes you are right about cell phone batteries but how much does it take to make a cell phone battery compared to a battery for a bus?
My point being is how do you replace every method of transportation with batteries 20, 30, 40 years from now? How much material would you have to mine out of the earth to make billions of batteries for vehicles?

I actually have money invested in a company that mines for battery material.

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