Why so negative? Why would they fold? They already have over 15k vehicles reserved.
They just smell like vaporware. Just like Aptera and Coda which were big deals a couple years ago they don't seem to have things lined up. I actually like the idea, but I don't think they'll make it happen.
Couple reasons:
Reports as late as January had targeted 2014 deliveries. They pushed it back recently to 2015. They still don't have a running engine or anything other than test mules running old Geo Metro drivetrains.
Their production plant lease is being called into question due to not having enough capital:
http://www.shreveporttimes.com/article/20140424/NEWS0503/304240005/
Their financials are a mess and totally unrealistic:
http://gas2.org/2013/08/16/financials-show-that-elio-motors-is-really-probably-not-gonna-happen/
http://cleantechnica.com/2013/08/19/paul-elio-motors-releases-financials/
They're advertising as having a 5* crash test rating. That's wrong in a number of ways since as technical motorcycles they will not go through government testing and frankly with their structure there's no way they'd pass the 3300 lb side impact test or the roof crush test(and they'd probably fail the rest). Will they make up their own standards and say they passed them? Who knows.
The 84 mpg target seems incredibly optimistic. They're twice the weight of a Honda Silverwing with the same power. The Silverwings are around 55 mpg. Can the aero and gearing do it? Maybe, but I wouldn't bite until they have production units proving it.
They don't have the legalities worked out yet. In some states they're trying to create a new category of autocycles to get around the pesky motorcycle endorsement and helmet requirements but that's far from a sure thing...ask Tesla how it is to deal with a ton of state and local governments to get something novel through. Then, if they succeed, they'll have to deal with the EPA and NHTSA because a high selling vehicle that looks like a car and quacks like a car but doesn't have to meet automotive emissions or crash standards won't sit well.
They advertise an available auto transmission. In the past 6 months their reps have described it as a traditional auto, a DCT, and an automated manual. That doesn't point to someone with a well established supply chain or a mature design that will be ready in the short term.
